PhD Candidate - Oral Presentation
- Why have Southeast Asian states persistently shown restraint towards China in the South China Sea after the Cold War?
- How have their practices of restraint evolved, and why?
Instead of adopting confrontational positions, Southeast Asian states have limited hostile actions, embraced conciliatory defence postures, avoided framing China as a threat, and selectively contested Beijing. This restraint persisted despite changes in economic ties, capabilities, and domestic politics—factors typically seen as explanatory.
Drawing on extensive fieldwork and over 100 interviews with officials from the three Southeast Asian states, this study argues that Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines negotiated tacit understandings with China in the late 1980s and early 1990s, enabling stability without resolving disputes. These implicit bilateral concords shaped their restraint and practices.
The study introduces the Tacit Understanding Framework, showing how shifts in these understanding influenced variations in behaviours.
This research underscores the significance of bilateral negotiations and regional practices in understanding the South China Sea’s post-Cold War history, and contributes to International Relations literature on rising power legitimation.
